Can US-Russia summit alleviate India's concerns over Trump's tariff policies?

Synopsis

Indian equity markets rebounded on Thursday, recovering from earlier losses fueled by tariff concerns. Optimism surrounding a potential Trump-Putin meeting spurred hopes for eased US-India trade relations, particularly regarding Russian oil purchases. The NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex both closed marginally higher, driven by short covering and positive momentum indicators, suggesting a possible continuation of the upward trend.

Mumbai: India's equity indices eked out gains on Thursday, recouping losses of almost 1% earlier in the day, as optimism around a likely meeting between Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin offset worries about the US President's announcement of additional 25% tariffs on imports of domestic goods.

The confirmation of the bilateral summit between the US and Russia stoked expectations that Putin might agree to Trump's demand for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, embroiled in a three-year-long conflict. Traders covered a part of their bearish bets on hopes that the US-Russia talks will ease Trump's hardened tariff policy against India, which has been attributed to New Delhi's purchase of Russian oil.

The NSE Nifty, which fell as much as 0.9% during the day, closed 0.1% or 21.95 points higher at 24,596.15. The BSE Sensex closed 0.1% or 79.27 points higher at 80,623.26. Both indices declined 0.7% in the past week.

"There was significant open interest at 24,400-24,500 levels, leading to short covering in the markets in today's expiry session," said Somil Mehta, Head of Alternate Research, Mirae Asset Sharekhan. "The momentum indicators are also signalling positive divergence, which implies that the bounce can continue post weeks of consolidation."

Mehta said the breach of the 200-day exponential moving average of 24,200 could lead to further downsides. The Volatility Index or VIX—the market’s fear gauge—fell 2.3% to almost 11.7 on Thursday, mirroring the recovery in the stock market. Elsewhere in Asia, Taiwan gained 2.4% while Japan and Hong Kong advanced 0.7% each.

South Korea rose 0.9% and China moved 0.2% higher. Indonesia declined 0.1%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was almost 1% up at the time of going to print. Germany and France climbed 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively..

“The worst of Trump’s tariffs is already accounted for, and the actual deal is expected to be better post negotiations and not have 50% tariffs implemented,” said Pranay Aggarwal, Director and CEO, Stoxkart.

At home, the Nifty Mid-cap 150 index advanced 0.3% while the Small-cap 250 index moved 0.1% lower on Thursday. Out of the 4,191 shares traded on BSE, 1,751 advanced, while 2,297 declined. In the past week, the mid-cap and small-cap indices shed 1% and 2.3% respectively.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net of Rs 4,997.2 crore on Thursday. Their domestic counterparts bought shares worth Rs 10,864 crore. So far in August, overseas investors sold Rs 12,685.8 crore. In July, overseas investors dumped shares worth Rs 38,214.5 crore—the highest selling since February this year.

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