Trump’s tactics a negotiation play, not a policy shift: Richard Redoglia

"You may see IOC and other state-owned refiners scale back their Russian imports. But the bigger picture is that Trump is juggling many priorities at once. In this case, I believe he’s applying pressure on Russia through India," says Richard Redoglia, CEO, Matrix Global Holdings.

What is your own sense? While we do not have any benchmark for where this is ultimately headed, India’s response so far has been very pragmatic, one must say.
Richard Redoglia: Very pragmatic indeed. India needs to import oil—that’s its necessity. Its job is to ensure a stable energy supply for its people. The largest refinery, Reliance, is a privately held company. So, it will import oil from any source it can. Russian oil has been available at a discount, and the specific type of oil it imports is important to its output.

But remember, Trump is negotiating—he’s always dealing, always in motion. What your previous two guests said is quite interesting: first, the stock market has closed at record highs; second, the EU felt taken to the cleaners on the last deal. So, we’re in a situation where I believe this is more about negotiation—using India, and I mean this respectfully, as a pawn in Trump’s broader efforts to end the war in Ukraine. That’s what we’re seeing here.

You may see IOC and other state-owned refiners scale back their Russian imports. But the bigger picture is that Trump is juggling many priorities at once. In this case, I believe he’s applying pressure on Russia through India.

Given the growing threats from Donald Trump, if they actually materialize, do you believe global investors might start repricing geopolitical risk in India and other emerging markets? And how could that impact India’s overall trade with the West?
Richard Redoglia: A very good point was made earlier. I think India will stand its ground for the time being. I don’t see any immediate change. Again, I’ll emphasize that Trump is negotiating in real time. He tweets in real time.

I believe—unless I’m mistaken—I saw a report that IOC announced it would reduce Russian oil imports temporarily. Remember, oil shipments from Russia take about 35 days to arrive, whereas oil from the Middle East takes just 10 to 15 days. There’s also excess capacity in the Middle East, which is a key factor here.

So, the issue isn’t just about Russian oil. The global oil market is dealing with overcapacity, which puts downward pressure on prices. When you talk about repricing risk and evaluating India, I’d say—perhaps I’m wrong—but this feels like a flash in the pan. It’s likely to pass in a few weeks.

Just recently, Iran was attacked. That’s already in the rearview mirror. Oil was at $78 then, and now it’s trading around $65–66. Markets recover quickly. They are efficient at repricing, especially in commodities. The fact that the U.S. stock market is at all-time highs and the oil market appears to be in balance suggests that what we’re witnessing now is simply a negotiation. That’s the lens through which we should view it.

Having lived in New York for 20 years while Donald Trump was a real estate developer, I’ve learned to take what he says with a grain of salt. And increasingly, the market is doing the same.

The bigger question is: where do you see the dollar heading? Because that, in itself, could dictate global capital flows. Do you think portfolios are now easing out of U.S. exposure?
Richard Redoglia: That’s a fair point. But again, when stock markets are hitting record highs, how much does the dollar really matter? The dollar is likely to weaken. The latest employment report showed some softness, which suggests we may see a rate cut in September, and possibly another by year-end.

So yes, the dollar may face pressure. But isn’t this part of a broader picture? Isn’t this a larger re-evaluation of how the market perceives everything?

Trump’s goal—at least what he says—is free trade. He’s putting tariffs in place to draw people into the U.S. market, but the broader aim seems to be enhancing the ability for global transactions. That’s the underlying intent.

As for the dollar—and this might sound controversial—I’d say it doesn’t matter much right now. Oil prices are in balance. What matters more is that Trump appears to be negotiating for peace in various parts of the world. That, in my view, should be the key focus for the markets.