What’s at stake for oil prices ahead of Trump’s Friday deadline for Russia-Ukraine cease-fire

Market Extra

Trump has threatened sweeping secondary tariffs designed to punish any country still trading with Russia if there’s no cease-fire agreement by Friday

Published: Aug. 7, 2025 at 3:39 p.m. ET

Investors may soon find out just how willing President Donald Trump is to punish Russia in the face of a potential jump in oil prices, as a Friday deadline set by the White House for a cease-fire with Ukraine looms over the market.

“It is not certain whether President Trump will hit Russia with new sanctions on Friday as scheduled, assuming no deal gets done in the next few hours, or if Trump will punish the Russians with maximum penalties but give them a deal that allows three weeks of wiggle room,” as he did when he slapped India with an additional levy that takes its tariff rate to 50% earlier this week, said Robert Yawger, commodity specialist at Mizuho Securities, in a Thursday note.